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The month of June was a month of “unlocking”. The economy unlocked and re-opened after a near three-month nationwide economic shutdown, equity markets started to see an unlocking of values with a broader market rally, and the entire country was unlocked from a relentless summer heat with monsoon making a welcome appearance in many parts of the country.
After three months of gloom, many parts of the world also slowly started to re-open their economies and restart business activity. While the rising number of COVID-19 cases particularly in India and the US continues to make headlines, the unlocking has brought relief to countries both economically and socially. Several industries, including the hospitality industry in some parts, have sprung back to life resulting in some signs of revival in employment. As incomes and job opportunities start to normalize, we could see a faster return to normalcy.
While macroeconomic indicators such as GDP numbers, manufacturing data and government’s revenue figures and tax collections are already reflecting economic distress, equity markets on the other hand have been rallying. Globally, markets have been surging on the back of the money being pumped in by central banks to prop up economic activity. Indian markets, which are catching up with their global peers, have started seeing a more broad-based rally. The BSE Smallcap Index was up 14.8% and the BSE Midcap Index was up 10.6% while the BSE Sensex was up 7.7% in June*. If the movement in the equity markets is any guidance, the rally we are seeing now could be a sign that markets think that all risk is priced in and the worst is behind us.
They say a good investment strategy is not about avoiding risks but about managing those risks well. In extremely volatile and unpredictable market conditions like the one we are seeing now investors tend to avoid risk at all costs for fear of loss. However, risk in investment is unavoidable and can be managed by diversifying investments and adopting appropriate asset allocation strategies. Investors who had stopped or paused their investments after the recent turmoil in the market, should consider restarting their investments. Timing the market is never a good strategy.
Investors could also consider rebalancing their portfolio to find the optimum asset allocation. For those, who are looking at steady long-term wealth creation, SIP continues to be the best route for investment. Investors who do not have adequate debt exposure could consider debt mutual funds with a three-year investment horizon and could look at investing via the SIP route.
Additionally, if there is anything this pandemic has taught us then it is that financial readiness is the need of the hour. Investors must not only start planning for long-term goals but also plan for near-term emergencies not just for yourself but also for your dependents such as your children. Planning separately for your child’s finances can go a long way in building a more secure and better financial future for them.
Finally, as we slowly restart our lives, let’s not forget that in this new world its safety and health first. Just like that in your investments too, first look at the safety of your investments by fully understanding the products you are investing in, and secondly consider the health of your investments by regularly reviewing your portfolio.
MD & CEO