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Viewpoint Podcast - Ep 3: Impact of Non-Farm Payroll Data on US Monetary Policy

01:35

Show Notes

The August non-farm payroll data was a key data point the markets were awaiting prior to the FOMC meeting in mid-September. The non-farm payroll addition for the month of August came out at 1 42,000 jobs which is slightly lower than the market consensus of 1lakh 165,000 jobs, in fact the 3month average at 1 lakh 16,000 is possibly the lowest in job creation number since the middle of 2020, this effectively solidifies the case for the FOMC to initiate its rate cutting campaign starting with the FOMC meeting in mid-September. The key point now to await or to look forward to is the extent of easing that is likely by the FOMC broader macro points or the macro data prints over the last few months clearly shows an economy that is slowing down but  possibly not entering a recessionary phase this effectively would ensure that the FED would start its policy easing by 25 basis point rate cut in the mid-September meeting at the same time markets at this point in time are pricing in 100% possibility of a 25 basis point easing in September and a cumulative easing of 100 basis point by end of the calendar year 2024.

Transcript

00:00 - 01:30

[upbeat music] The August non-farm payroll data was a key data point the markets were awaiting prior to the FOMC meeting in mid-September. The non-farm payroll addition for the month of August came out at one lac forty-two thousand jobs, which is slightly lower than the market consensus of one lac sixty-five thousand jobs. In fact, the three-month average at one lac, uh, sixteen thousand is possibly the lowest in job creation numbers since the middle of two thousand and twenty. This effectively solidifies the case for the FOMC to initiate its rate-cutting campaign, starting with the FOMC meeting in mid-September. The key point now to await or to look forward to is the extent of easing that is likely by the FOMC. Broader macro points or the macro data prints over the last few, uh, months clearly shows an economy that is slowing down, but possibly not entering a recessionary phase. This effectively would ensure that, uh, the Fed, uh, would, uh, start its policy easing by a twenty-five basis point rate cut in the mid-September meeting. At the same time, markets at this point in time are pricing in hundred percent possibility of a twenty-five basis point easing in September and a cumulative easing of hundred basis point by end of the calendar year, uh, two thousand and twenty-four.

01:30 - 01:35

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